Sometimes I wish my life had a erase/rewind button

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Nuke deal: Nuked or Left?

What a comedy over the Nuke deal! For once MM showed spine and said take the deal or withdraw support. Three cheers to Dr for finally choosing national interest over politics.
Left meanwhile makes its issue clear. They claim its both the deal and the strategic tie up with the USA that they resent. Strategic tie up with a 'democratic' sole super power is bad? lets face it, we've been beggars most of our modern life. finally that we are waking up to potential it makes sense to make ties. Its time we realize that a nation is truly independent only when it feed all its citizen, ensure full life and liberty and is powerful enough to stand up to any nation militarily and economically. We can harp on non-alignment for all we want but who gives a hoot to it? Do we matter to any nation. Heck we can't even fix a small nation on our side and we dream of being leaders of the world.

I won't be surprised if left is getting instructions on this from China. After all the nation that lays claim to a fair bit of our territory, is most steadfast ally of the nation that has make death by thousand cuts of India its raison de etre, and aims to be the power in Asia has genuine reasons to fear India and USA coming closer. Left being a client party of China CPA may actually have got word to oppose it on this big an issue.

BJP is of course opposing it while the deal that they were negotiating had much less to India (Talbot in his book mentions that Jaswant was willing to sign CBDT to get the deal), but in India opposition is not about working for interest of India if government goes wrong. Its about power even at the cost of India and Indians. But i wonder a mid term poll is such a good idea for BJP. They are in a hopeless disarray and their recent acts will make any rational Indian wince at the thought of voting them back to power.

Pity that Karan Thapar on CNBC made such a hash of interviewing Sitaram Yechuri. for once I agreed with S Y that Karan came with an agenda and tried to impose it besides monopolizing conversation. He just made one good point of the agreement text circumventing a US law which SY said is denying India its rights. While I have strong views on SY's misrepresentations of reality, this encounter left SY with moral upper ground. Such a pity or was it a part of the agenda too?

One question I would like to ask Left is whats the net gain if we do not have this deal? We don't have uranium fuel to run our power reactors. While jingoistic pride leads one to say we are the leaders in fast breeder using thorium, I doubt. if thats true why ain't we generating more electricity? Exporting nuke reactors? Have more nuclear science university programs? As for weapons we probably have enough to deter any body.

What we might lack might be the delivery systems where a strategic tie up with US might help more. After all, Pakistan is imploding. Where we might need a triad of delivery system might be to deter China, not so much Pak. Of course given that, Left very conveniently is dead set against any strategic, military and technology tie up with USA and Israel the two countries that can actually help develop a reach capability (reach within the immediate and near neighborhood).

In this case the deal actually allows us to import fuel for our reactors. Which means that our own meager supply of Uranium is actually available for military purposes. This is an argument often quoted correctly by Nonproliferation ayatollahs and is essentially true. Left of course very conveniently forgets to comment on this. Currently we have a severe shortage of fuel for our reactors and hence have to eat into our military use reserves. The deal also allows us to build a strategic reserve of fuel for our reactors. Assuming that Left fears are true and USA does demand a recall after say a nuclear test by India. It has to buy out our reactors and fuel which means that the financial impact is less on India than on US.
Besides I doubt if India will really test anymore at least in near future. Even without the deal the cost of a fresh test will be steep, a percentage more or less after the deal ain't all that different. Besides an underlying assumption is the we need more nuclear weapons. Do we? Aren't say 50 bombs enough to deter any nuke power from nuking us? As for non nuke warfare which is what the world usually sees, having great allies helps in preventing war and helps in upgrade of military. Of course Left opposes military games with countries who can be our natural allies.

Is it really that far fetched if some smart congressmen tie up with BJP. lets face it, ideologically they are not too far apart. If Vajpayee is brought around, Advani, Narendra M marginalized, Both may gain. I'll say tie up for the next elections. that will give both 7 years. Eliminate left from Bengal (if they can't after Nandigram they are really too incompetent), Shiv Sena from Maharashtra, Mulayam from UP, Dev Gowda from Karnataka can all be gotten rid if we just allow the law to take its own course. and 7 years is long enough for law to take its own course. That leaves the two to slog out in subsequent elections on real issues.

History shows that Indians are their own worst enemies. Cong and BJP of course will not come together. And Left will ensure that any chances of India becoming a real important power are fizzled out at first opportunities. What the deal and its strategic implications give us is high technology, access to top civilian nuclear tech which is all the more important given the scarcity and politics of oil based economy. Our engineers may train with the best university world wide (in civilian tech areas), all of which is so important with future. The reason why left is so anti is because its coming from US.

They probably want us to sign space technology kind agreements with Papua New Guinea's to improve our capabilities. The sheer duplicity of left which opposes Indian nuclear progress which vehemently championing Iranian program is staggering. and to think we elected 59 of these folks to stab us in heart, back and eyes just proves we get what we deserve.
I fear that even if the crises blows over and there is some compromise put in place which it may given the lust for power in Delhi, our negotiators may have their hands severely weakened after all this visible circus. That may be the biggest loss of them all.

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