May You Live in Interesting Times

I have been thinking about the great game being played in Asia (Yeah Yeah I know I have too much time on hand!). The ascendancy of China to a regional and global power status and India's potential to be one. No wonder the US offered India a strategic alignment deal and a civilian nuclear deal. All the protestations to the contrary make no mistake, US and India and strategically aligning and it may not be a bad thing.
If one looks at the power equations of today and next 50 years the real economic powerhouses are the US, the European Union (esp Germany), Japan, China and India which is sort of breaking into the club. Japan is a bit of anomaly since while it is the 2nd biggest economic superpower, it does not have a military to match and that is mostly out of choice. However the Japanese navy is big and the nation is technologically advance enough to become a military power very rapidly. Again the same history probably holds it back from arming itself more so since its rearming might make its neighbors (not just China) very very nervous which is not a good state to be in.
European Union is primarily a trade union and does not seem to be heading in any sort of a military coalition (well there is NATO but that derives its strength from US). There is Russia which has inherited the mantle of erstwhile Soviet Union. Russian economy has picked up steam but its unlikely it will catch up with China or India anytime in foreseeable future unless energy prices do wonders to it. But as a military it is again becoming a potent force. That leaves the US, China, Russia and India as the possible players. US is the most powerful military nation in world history and will stay so for the near future though China will bridge the power difference quite a bit.
So there are 3 possible military alliances. US-Japan-China, US-Japan-India, India-China-Russia. I think it is unlikely if Russia will join US in any coalition unless China threatens Russia which is unlikely though there are some border issues in far east between the two. But the legacy of cold war and the inroads of NATO in what Russia considers its own backyards will probably keep US and Russia apart.
US-Japan-China is again unlikely since the rise of China will threaten US and Japan the most and while making friends with a competitor is sometimes a good idea, I find it a bit hard to believe that China will really be content with being a 2nd grade power to US in Asia. Japan again will make China nervous and of course Taiwan is a great irritant. US will not let Taiwan join China if it can help it and Japan will also hold the same view. Taiwan with US listening posts allows US and Japan to keep tabs on China Navy and that is too much of a strategic advantage to lose. Of course a Taiwanese groundswell to join mainland China will be a different issue and that could complicate the situation. It is in India's interest to also maintain that status quo since if Taiwan merges with China and Chinese navy then becomes a real blue navy then India is also threatened.
Russia-India-China nexus while the brainchild of Russia is not really a starter. Post cold war, US-India relations have really improved and unlike China, India has not real dispute with US. This is manifested in the warming of strategic ties with US post cold war and US pronoucement to help India become a 'great power'.
That leaves US-India-Japan as the most feasible nexus and it has great advantages to India too. US help can transform India, the former's technology and scientific lead enormous over all others. All 3 are democratic countries and have no real reason to hate each other. also the political nature of the 3 ensures that there can be no sudden course changes with will reassure the other alliance partners. Japan can contribute a lot with its own financial and technological prowess to India and India offers a great oppurtunity to Japan to increase its own economic growth rates. So this seems a natural alliance and this probably is why India suddenly seem to be getting such good deals like US military co-operation and by all indications a very favorable nuclear deal.
This also creates great opportunity for India but at the same times drags it into a great strategic game which can also be a potential liability. Hence the title. China feels like it is being encircled by US and India falling into US game plan will hurt the most. But then India has even more legitimate concerns of being encircled by China. China has setup listening posts in Myanmar, is fishing in Bangladesh and Nepal. China's play of Pakistan of course is of immediate concern. China gave nuclear bomb designs to Pakistan, gave it equipment and by some accounts actually gave it tactical nuclear weapons and military hardware post the Parliament attack buildup. That charge is a very very serious charge and if true it basically meant that China was joining Pakistan in a war against India were that to happen.
Therefore it is clear that India can take Chinese words on peaceful friendly neighborhood only with a fistful of salt. It has been Chinese policy to ensure peace while they develop their economy. An excellent policy since it has allowed them to grow their economy without distraction. It was also their policy to encourage Pakistan to not allow India the same luxury. Economic power is a precondition for being a great military power and Pakistan's shenanigans have ensures India wasting a lot of time and resources on maintaining peace without India. It will not surprise me if the recent increase in terrorist attacks in India are not entirely co-incidental since they come at a time when India seems to be busy sewing up agreements internationally and they distract from governance at a critical time.
Still India will not like to get into competition with China. The difference in economies are huge with the Chinese almost 3 times as big and India and that difference will not bridge in any foreseeable future barring natural or political calamities. At the same time India cannot simply play a peaceful neighbor not doing anything to anger china (aligning with US or Japan will anger China) since if India does not take US-Japan help it will be too insignificant militarily to do anything once China does become a superpower in 50 years or so. Indeed interesting times.
Can India then join a US-Japan understanding and keep China-India grouping too? Unlikely but not impossible. The trouble with China is understanding them. Its is not infrequent to see Chinese words and actions being opposites. Will an understanding like, we will not build up against you if You let Indian ocean to us and we let Pacific ocean to you. Indian Navy can escort Chinese ships from straits of Malacca to Africa and Mideast and China can do the same to Indian ships in pacific. Obviously India's very strategic location means that it is India's navy which will be escorting more. Still it does offer China a way of of getting into competition with India. china as of now considers India insignificant and its eyes will mostly be on US and Japan. So its not a terrible deal for China. The trick might be developing that trust between us.

To be continues